Efectos de los comportamientos tácticos en las transiciones defensivas: ¿varía el defender ante rivales de distinto nivel?
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.47197/retos.v75.117553Palabras clave:
Análisis de componentes principales, análisis del rendimiento, factores situacionales, fútbol, rendimiento defensivoResumen
Introducción: Aunque la defensa ha recibido mayor atención, las transiciones defensivas en juego abierto siguen poco estudiadas.
Objetivo: Analizar cómo los comportamientos tácticos intraequipo y la calidad del oponente influyen en los resultados de las transiciones en fútbol.
Metodología: Se analizaron siete partidos de un equipo de la Segunda Liga portuguesa: cuatro contra rivales de la misma liga y tres frente a conjuntos de Primera Liga. A partir de los datos posicionales se generaron treinta y dos variables, y los desenlaces se clasificaron mediante revisión de vídeo. Un análisis de componentes principales (ACP) redujo la matriz de datos y se aplicaron regresiones logísticas multinomiales de efectos aleatorios para evaluar la influencia de los componentes principales y el efecto modulador de la calidad del oponente.
Resultados y discusión: Varios componentes principales (CP1, CP3, CP5 y CP6) se asociaron con los desenlaces. Mantener compacidad longitudinal y ajustar roles tácticos a las demandas del juego redujo la probabilidad de resultados desfavorables (p < .05; OR = 1.913). La recuperación de la posesión aumentó con movimientos hacia los corredores exteriores (p < .05; OR = 0.560). Frente a rivales de mayor calidad surgieron mayores dificultades para limitar la progresión del balón (p < .05; OR = 0.257). Posicionar más jugadores en líneas avanzadas incrementó la probabilidad de conceder progresiones a rivales de mayor calidad (p < .05; OR = 3.379).
Conclusión: El estudio demuestra que métricas defensivas derivadas de PCA explican variaciones en los resultados de las transiciones y subrayan la utilidad de los datos posicionales de un único equipo para comprender patrones tácticos en competición.
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